January 26, 2026 by Morris Matters (Updated)

Here in the Northeast, lots of people have been complaining about high utility bills.  Listening to area talk shows, people seem to have ignored the warnings , that much higher commodity prices were on the way.    I've put together some information to show why your bill increased and an example of a warning .  

 Background:

If you never got information like this maybe it is due to the bias displayed by many talk show hosts and politicians.  They erroneously try to blame it on renewable energy or what they call the "green scam" In reality onshore wind and especially utility scale solar are the cheapest forms of energy, not fossil fuels or nuclear. In 2024, solar photovoltaics (PV) were, on average, 41% cheaper than the lowest-cost fossil fuel alternatives, while onshore wind projects were 53% cheaper. Onshore wind remained the most affordable source of new renewable electricity at USD 0.034/kWh, followed by solar PV at USD 0.043/kWh.  It is anticipated that solar PV will soon become the cheapest.  It should be noted that constantly evolving technology has allowed for battery  storage costs to drop very quickly, while also becoming much safer.

The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is the energy industry standard  and Lazard's annual analysis provides insights into the cost competitiveness of various energy generation technologies. "Lazard's 2025 LCOE+ report highlights that, despite headwinds and macroeconomic challenges, renewables remain the most cost-competitive form of new-build generation on an unsubsidized basis (i.e., without tax subsidies).  As such, renewable energy will continue to play a key role in the buildout of new power generation in the U.S. This is particularly true in the current high power demand environment, where renewables stand out as both the lowest-cost and quickest-to-deploy generation resource".

Some of the real reasons for the higher utility bills in the Northeast, particularly NYS are:

1)Colder than normal temperatures .  

2)Rising Natural Gas Prices mirroring the cold temperatures.

3)The US is a huge exporter of Natural Gas which, diminishes supplies at home.  Furthermore , like oil NG is a commodity subject to the price on a world stage.

4)Natural gas is the largest source of electricity generation in the United States, accounting for approximately 43% of total utility-scale electricity generation in 2023. Natural gas generated twice as much electricity in New York in 2023 as any other fuel source. As of August 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that approximately 26% of electricity on the utility grid in New York comes from renewable sources, and 20% comes from nuclear sources. But, 54% still comes from natural gas.

5)Data Centers and AI gobbling up energy and water resources.

6)In NYS the Public Service Commission recently approved substantial increases in what the utilities can charge for delivery.  It is expected that these charges will continue to rise.

Henry Hub natural gas spot prices adjusted for inflation

over the last 20 years have shown extreme volatility, with spikes exceeding

$15 per MMBtu in the mid-2000s followed by long periods of low prices (often below

$3−$4$  due to shale production, before rising again due to LNG demand. Recent 2025/2026 inflation-adjusted prices show a strengthening trend around the $3.50−$4.30 range. 

Key Historical Trends (Inflation-Adjusted/Nominal Highlights) 

• 2005-2008: Prices were exceptionally high, frequently peaking over

• $10−$15 in inflation-adjusted terms, driven by supply constraints.

• 2009-2020: The "shale gale" significantly lowered prices, with inflation-adjusted spot prices often sitting in the

• $2−$5 range.

• 2021-2022: Prices increased sharply, reaching highs of over

• $6−$9 in 2022 due to demand recovery and LNG exports.

• 2023-2025: Prices moderated but spiked again in late 2025, with projections for early 2026 showing strengthened prices around

• $4.30 per MMBtu during winter months. 

Recent Annual Inflation-Adjusted Data (Nominal/Approximate) 

• 2022:

• ∼$6.45

• 2023:

• ∼$2.53

• 2024:

• ∼$2.19

• 2025 (Nov):

• ∼$3.79

• 2026 (Projected):

• ∼$2.91 (annual avg), with winter peaks near

• $4.30$ 4.30 

Note: Data from sources like Macrotrends and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis provide historical, often inflation-adjusted, views. 

EIA Sees Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices Strengthening Substantially Amid Winter’s Bullish Grip

By Kevin Dobbs on December 09, 2025 at 1:14 p.m.

Published in:

Daily Gas Price Index

Filed under:

LNGNatural Gas PricesNatural Gas Storage

Natural gas spot prices at benchmark Henry Hub could rise to an average well above $4.00/MMBtu during the current winter as robust heating demand and escalating calls for U.S. LNG soak up supply, according to an updated federal estimate.

At A Glance:

• EIA sees winter Henry Hub near $4.30

• Agency expects $4.01 average for 2026

• Futures exceed $5.00 amid cold blasts

In its December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that Henry Hub spot prices would average about $4.30 overall in winter 2025/26 (November–March). That was up markedly from a prior estimate of $3.90. If the price forecast for this heating season is realized, it would exceed by 22% the actual average of last winter.

EIA researchers estimated that the key price gauge would average $4.01 for all of 2026 — a 13% increase from the expected average for this year.

The winter revision from the November STEO to the updated installment was “driven primarily by colder-than-expected weather in December, which we expect will increase space heating demand,” EIA researchers said.

Following a cold end to November and an even frostier start to December, spot prices spiked. NGI’s weekly Henry Hub cash price for the Dec. 1–5 period averaged $5.445, up nearly $2.00 from the first week of November as frigid air covered much of the central and eastern United States.

Demand remains strong. Cold in the Midwest this week was expected to push to the East by mid-month. “Another round of frigid air is on the way, especially for Americans in the Great Lakes and Northeast starting Monday and lasting through Wednesday” of next week, Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said.

LNG volumes averaged close to 19 Bcf/d in early December, per NGI data. That was near all-time peaks and well above year-earlier levels around 14 Bcf/d. The Gulf Coast LNG complex was in expansion mode this year and is expected to remain so throughout this decade.

The strong LNG feed gas activity is “reinforcing the idea that export demand is now a structural pillar of the U.S. gas balance and that each incremental upgrade on the Gulf Coast hardens the floor under winter pricing,” Gelber & Associates analysts said.

On average, EIA expects the United States will export 16 Bcf/d of LNG for all of 2025 — 25% more than last year. As capacity increases, the agency projected feed gas demand from LNG terminals would rise by another 7% on average in 2026.

Data centers that are popping up in several states across the Lower 48 to power artificial intelligence add another new source of energy demand. While estimates run a wide gamut, industry analysts say data center demand is likely to drive 3 Bcf/d or more of natural gas consumption by 2030.

EIA forecast U.S. electricity generation by the power sector would grow by 2.4% this year and by another 1.7% in 2026. This growth “is primarily driven by increasing demand from large customers, including data centers,” researchers said.

Against that backdrop January natural gas futures rallied to nearly $5.50 last week, reaching the highest level for the contract in more than eight months.

The prompt month retreated Monday and Tuesday this week, however, and fell below $5.00 amid robust production. Wood Mackenzie on Tuesday estimated seven-day average production at 109.4 Bcf/d, up more than 6 Bcf/d from a year earlier.

EIA estimated U.S dry gas production would average 109 Bcf/d in 2026, up about 1% from this year’s average pace.

“We expect milder-than-normal weather in early 2026 and rising production will help moderate natural gas prices following the winter,” EIA analysts said.

Storage is stout as well.

EIA most recently posted a 12 Bcf draw of natural gas from underground inventories for the week ended Nov. 28. It left stocks at a surplus relative to the prior five years of 5%. For the week ended Dec. 5, NGI modeled a draw of 163 Bcf. That compares bullishly with a five-year average decrease of 89 Bcf.

Elevated supply is “helping to ease the squeeze” on supply/demand balances brought on by the early winter surge in weather demand, said NRG Energy Inc. analysts.

Natural gas is the largest source of electricity generation in the United States, accounting for approximately 43% of total utility-scale electricity generation in 2023. It serves as a primary, flexible power source, significantly exceeding coal (16%) and renewable sources (28%) in the U.S. power grid.